I suppose it depends on why they’re being quiet. If other civilizations view each other as competitors for rare resources like worlds that would be inhabitable with out large scale terraforming, then being loud may get your planet targeted. That’s the basis for the “Dark Forest” theory. I think that theory is interesting, but it’s a bit pessimistic in my opinion. What’s way more likely is, if there are other civilizations out there, the odds of them existing during the same time frame that we’re here, AND being close enough to receive radio waves in a timely fashion, AND are at a technology level to send and receive those radio waves… it’s all very very very unlikely.
For me, what’s way scarier is, it isn’t that everyone is being quiet, it’s that there isn’t any one else out there, and we’re one of the first civilizations to develop. If there were other highly advanced civilizations out there, there’d be signs of them, signs of their technology. Shit, I read that large ships moving at close to the speed light would generate detectable gravity waves. But so far, nothing.
The "Dark Forest" hypothesis is riddled with holes, it only works as the premise for a scary science fiction series and not as a real-world Fermi Paradox solution. The main problem with it is that life on Earth has been readily detectable for two billion years and there's no reason a paranoid xenocidal alien species wouldn't want to wipe that out preemptively, so we'd already be long dead if it were actually the case.
I don't see why it's scary to be the first. To the contrary, that means that our descendants will get to colonize the reachable volume of the cosmos without risk of running into a more advanced species that squashes them like bugs (whether deliberately or simply by having already occupied all the useful resources).
I remember a writing prompt that talked about how we’re broadcasting all our TV and radio for years then we get a reply that says, “Be quiet, they will hear you.”
Oh okay, so this insular civ broke radio silence to transmit something that will definitely be a big deal and recorded in our news and science papers in extreme detail, and they’re not worried that when the threat arrives they will trace that signal back to them?
I’ve never heard a good explanation for how the dark forest develops and stays stable for any length of time.
The obvious answer there would be that you get wiped out if you’re too loud, hence the only surviving civilizations are the quiet ones. We wouldn’t’ve been met by a friendly transmission politely informing us, but rather whatever the cause for this silence is - some force so overwhelming that it possibly inadvertently wipes out nascent species.
Say, for instance self-replicating artificial space probes designed to seek out “new life and civilizations” gone wrong. So, deep space is full of these things and if a star draws their attention, all of them within transmission distance make a beeline - say hi and then proceeds to “salvage” any usable matter in the star system to replicate themselves and spread out again, thereby also dooming whatever life attracted them in the first place.
That’s my take on it too. It could just be natural selection - noisy, young Civs get eaten by the big bad space predator, while inherently quieter Civs survive.
So the universe could be full of life but it’s the sort of life that doesn’t attract attention.
There doesn’t even have to be a “big bad” in this situation either, it could simply be that the sort of life that creates noisy Civs, is also the kind of life that ends up annihilating itself before it gets advanced enough to be able to make contact with others. That sort of crosses over into the Great Filter though.
I agree about the Dark Forest hypothesis. Also the idea that other alien life just knew to be quiet up front is silly, for the same reason we’ve been blasting radio waves into the universe the moment we figured out how.
Nah, us being first is scary to me in the sense if life is nearly impossible to form, and we’re all alone, that means we can search planet after planet, after planet and only find dead lifeless environments. That’s not nearly as fun of a thought as the universe being full of life, and all the amazing discoveries we’d make exploring. That’s all I meant.
Yeah the DFH makes no sense. It requires that all forms of nearby alien life exist, but either choose to be completely silent (somehow) without knowing that other life exists, or to have found out that other life exists and chosen to be silent before broadcasting literally anything decipherable.
I know it’s so damn frequent that Occam’s Razor gets trotted out, but in this situation, I think the simplest explanation is probably the most likely. Life developing in general is insanely rare in the universe, and there is no law that states that life HAS to evolve into intelligent life that would develop technologies, and space travel.
For me, what’s way scarier is, it isn’t that everyone is being quiet, it’s that there isn’t any one else out there, and we’re one of the first civilizations to develop.
Why would you find that scary?
Is it because of the ‘great filter’ stuff, that there must therefore be something ahead of us in time that wipes us out (like self-inflicted climate change)? Or is it something like humans being awfully flawed to go down in universal history as the “first” intelligent and technologically advanced species? Or something else?
maybe if we’re the only and first one, our odds of ‘success’ are much lower, and aint nobody gonna show up to guide us. if millions of previous had already ‘succeeded’ then its likely smooth sailing with a well tread path.
That’s fine though, 10,000 Years of unguided human history got us here. We relatively just got started in science. It would be more scary if we saw derelict super structures.
I find the idea that life is insanely rare, and that 99.99999999999999999999 of every planet and moon is lifeless. Even if we some how find a way to explore the cosmos, we’ll be searching empty dead rocks for the rest of our species lives. That’s scary to me.
Well I’m pretty sure as soon as those 179 episodes of The Apprentice that we broadcast in all directions for 11 years reaches an alien civilization it’s going to provoke an attack that destroys the entire solar system.
Broadcast that we’ve discovered a cheap and hilariously effective FTL but to kick it off requires us to collapse the vacuum decay. We’re willing to do it and relocate to the other side of the universe, but we don’t want to destroy everything if anyone is around. Answer quick, we’re packing
This is one answer to the fermi paradox that makes no sense to me. If we did live in a dark forest universe where everyone was hiding from some oppressive existential threat, how would any of the civilisations learn about it?
They would need to be in contact with one another to discover that other civilisations were being wiped out, but for that to happen, the wiping out civilisation would have to be able to find them as well. If they destroyed civ A, they’d definitely be able to find references to civ B in their ruins, somewhere. I see no mechanism by which a civilisation could observe this enemy in action without being detected.
Unless someone has come up with an answer to this issue, in which case I’d like to see it.
Also, if you can detect them, just telling them that you’ve detected them should change their strategy, because if a basic civilsation like ours can do it then they’re not actually that safe by hiding. The dark forest seems like a really fragile arrangement.
Right but then that relies on not existing in a dark forest. That is, you can detect signs of alien life, but then those signs tell you horrible things.
The situation we have is that we see nothing.
I guess the answer is that some civilisations reach a point where they broadcast themselves and get destroyed, whilst other civilisations reach a point where they receive those broadcasts and don’t reply before hearing the other civilisation get destroyed. So somehow they were listening at the exact right moment to discover that others are getting killed without responding, and that happened enough times that there is a whole universe full of quiet civilisations.
I still don’t see the A to B. I cannot imagine any species curious enough to detect alien life and insular enough to not respond. If we got those signs we would reply immediately, almost definitely.
The oppressive existential threat you reference doesn't need to exist for the universe to be a dark forest universe. It's enough for every sufficiently advanced civilization to realize that such a threat could exist and remain quiet and hidden just in case.
Right but that’s fragile. All it takes is one group to break the ice and suddenly they’re all talking.
Also, is the theory that we could live in a dark forest because every single species is insular enough to be afraid of such a threat? That means they all have to believe in the threat and yet also no species is aggressive enough to become the threat. But none of them thinks, “Wait, either we’re alone or everyone is hiding. If everyone is hiding, then the threat can’t exist, so we may as well say something.”
Again, it’s fragile. I find it completely unconvincing.
The Prime Directive concept is way more believable to me, as is the idea that life is just sparse.
All it takes is one civilization to shoot off their mouth and get destroyed by a much more advanced neighbor, in some way that doesn’t look quite natural. That will tend to confirm the cosmic paranoia.
As I said elsewhere: that’s no longer a dark forest. The moment one civilisation speaks up, they all know they’re not alone. Then they’re in a different universe, one where there’s no longer a paradox because they’ve found each other.
I do agree with your probability assessment; I too think that the Prime Directive is a more plausible answer to the Fermi paradox, as is “we're just alone”.
However, it is not necessarily the case that everyone suddenly gets talking as soon as one of them breaks radio silence. If everyone is silent because of a perceived possible threat, then it stands to reason they will continue to be silent even when they receive a message.
If I were trying to get quiet aliens to communicate, I would try to get earthlings to clean up their own mess. I can’t imagine an advanced civilization wanting to bother with the sad tragedy of humanity’s self-destruction. There isn’t a day where some random human isn’t killing another, and there’s usually some government that has organized some mass-kill army operation against another country – or, worse, it’s own people. Even omitting the bloodthirsty, power-hungry, greedy, and liars, the general population can’t get together to work for the common good.
Maybe we could start by fixing the climate catastrophe, getting the trash out of the ocean, and then getting food and housing to everyone. If I was an alien that’d been avoiding Earth, that’s the sort of thing that would get my attention.
Which is the perfect premises for a Colonial Invasion by a “superioristic” neighbor. Like the Belgians bringing Civilization to Congo, or France shining the lights of the Republic to North Africa (and S-E Asia). Or the Spanish, saving South America through Religion.
Please, Lizards Overlords, make haste; I have a feeling it is a matter of emergency right now.
Genuine question: do you think most intelligent life outside of Earth, of existent, is equal to or less advanced than Earth? Or at the same level in issues?
Because in that case, you’d become the doomer, cuz that’s depressing.
I think we’re the North Sentinelese of the Milky Way and we’re being purposefully insulated so we develop technologically and sociologically up to a certain point where we’ll be able to join everyone else. I doubt they’ll say anything. That’s the point. In fact i think we’re being shielded as a kindness, possibly protected too. We, as a species, can’t even leave the solar system and return. I’m guessing an advanced enough civilization could create a believable enough reproduction of the universe for us to study.
I think the difference between the alien UN and our global organization is probably the same level as the difference between our UN and the North Sentinel Island tribal elders.
It just doesn’t make sense that the galaxy is empty. But my theory is just my best guess. I have no concrete evidence. I do think there are some mighty coincidences around here. For instance, a solar system stocked with several planets and minerals and a long life stable star, almost ideal from all the various star types available. A random meteorite hitting the earth after millions of years of dinosaurs not developing intelligent life. A very logical progression of bodies for a space faring civilization to grow. First the moon, then mars, then venus, etc. A lot of asteroids that seem to zip by Earth but always near miss at an alarming common rate. Jupiter strategically placed to keep Earth safe from a large number of meteors and other celestial bodies.
I think humans are a benevolent, non intrusive biological experiment by an advanced species or at the very least a protected species in some nature reserve. Them interacting with us could potentially hamper our development. It could be that religions were their previous attempts but didn’t work out so well.
A small amount of water sits there, it this hole in the ground it finds itself in. It looks at this cavity, observes how perfectly it fits the contours of their liquid body. It’s perfect! Every nook and cranny seems to be formed to fit the puddle perfectly.
“This hole must have been made for me! It’s too much of a coincidence that, with all the ways a hole could form, this one formed perfectly to fit me!”
You’re doing that. You’re saying it’s a crazy coincidence that all the right things were in place here for life to exist that led to us being here… but if it wasn’t, then we just wouldn’t have developed as life-forms. Or if the environs were different, life would have developed to fit into that kind of solar system. I think you just like the idea, so you believe it, but I think it’s better to believe things we have evidence for.
Maybe the hole was made for the puddle, who’s to say it wasn’t? Perhaps a large number of coincidental occurrences made it, but there sits the water in a hole that perfectly accommodates it. Something that the people who built the road expected. How can one say it wasn’t the intention of the organization of the universe in a series of probabilities that one day that water would be right on that puddle, in a specific moment in time? Wouldn’t that arguably make the hole made for the water at that point in time ?
I guess that’s more of a philosophy debate, but honestly until we get more data, it could be anything. All we know is that our long range scanners have not detected advanced civilizations and that doesn’t match our expectations. It could be because they don’t exist, it could be because they’re hiding themselves from us.
We know very little about alien life at this point and until we have more information, every explanation is possible. Some scientific explanations of the universe or life that were eventually discovered were certainly more wild and vivid than we previously thought before. I’m not saying this is what is necessary happening, just something that could be happening.
Jesus fucking christ. You know how water works, right? It fits the form of the container it’s in. It’s an simplified analogy to explain what that other guy linked to. We (well, you) see a universe fit to our kind of life, but the reality is that we developed to fit the universe.
You remind me of this guy I saw the other day claiming that a whole bunch of rocks that are vaguely shaped like body parts might be fossilized body parts.
He just kept saying “I’m not saying it definitely is, but imagine if we don’t understand the world, and it’s maybe this way? Crazy right?!”
It’s such cowardly bullshit. If you want to believe a thing because it sounds nice to you, don’t half-ass it and throw qualifiers on it. You brought it up, and then when challenged the tiniest bit, backed down with a “I’m not saying that’s definitely true… but maybe…?”
and that doesn’t match our expectations.
What expectations? Actual scientist, using facts, don’t have expectations of alien life. We don’t know the probability of life existing anywhere but here because we have nothing to compare it to. We have the one universe with the one data set available to us. Until we discover alien life, we should have no expectation for it. Do I think it’s likely there is life elsewhere? Yes. Does that mean I expect it? No. We don’t have enough information about the cosmos to even start to calculate whether it should happen.
I had a roommate once who believed that the stuff from the Alvin the Maker book series was real. The magic and shit. I asked if he had anything that led him to believe that or if he just really liked the books and wanted it to be. OF course he didn’t have any evidence or real reason for it. He just wanted it to be so, so he decided that he was going to believe that thing.
You’re doing that. Stop it. Be a grown-up here and stop believing in make-believe and believe things only when we have sufficient (or in your case, I’ll take any) evidence.
I like to imagine a sort of awkward strangers reasoning for it, personally, where it’s not a matter of anything untoward involved, so much as nobody able to decide how to break the ice. Supposing that, I wonder what the cosmic icebreaker might be?
I don’t think that there is likely such a thing that would produce a direct response. If you wanted to not be noticed, why would you change your behavior based on what something else transmits?
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