I don't know if it counts as a "city" exactly, but there's still a lot of defensive locations. Concrete apartment buildings can take a hell of a beating and stay standing apparently. Houses are damaged, but they're still cover...
Prigozhin is probably upset about the war in Ukraine because it isn't in their interests. They are PMCs, mercenaries. They have no interest in fighing a long protracted war and suffering large-scaled casualties for little gain either politically or monetarily. He also likely smells blood in the water, Putin is in the weakest position he has ever been in as we talk abou tthis even.
Wagner in contrast whilst suffering is in ascendancy. They are the strongest and largest they've ever been and seem to be doing a lot of heavy lifting in Ukraine for the Russians. So they're disastisfied but also seem to have the means to do something about it.
They'd much rather be deployed to fight the more conventional wars that Mercenaries fight these days in the global south. And as long as Putin is in charge there is a good chance Wagner isn't going to get back to fighting those wars. So it would make sense that they mutiny.
Yeah, no. Russia's biggest achievement in denazifying Ukraine was having the Wagner troops leave Ukraine. Second biggest will be when Russia's own army leaves.
Prigozhin is about as bad as Putin, if not worse. He's done a lot of dirty work for Putin.
Prigozhin decides "if I'm dead anyway, I'm taking Putin with me"
Lukashenko somehow convinces Prigozhin that "it's ok, Putin changed his mind and won't kill you anymore" - so Prigozhin no longer feels the need to go for a suicide mission (although how Lukashenko convinced Prigozhin of this, I have no idea)
If this had really been about Shoigu or a coup or anything other than just a suicide mission, then the current result makes 0 sense. (But in that case, maybe the situation isn't really over at all)
Nah, if Prigozhin doesn't have loyalists installed at FSB, Interior, and Defence he's a dead man. I guarantee you he knows this. You don't get into a position of power in Russia without knowing that. His lead elements were holding an Operational Rally Point just outside of Moscow when they just... turned around and a promise...? From Putin...?
No chance, Prigozhin may be a ruthless, cutthroat sociopath but he's not an idiot. Add to that Putin called him out as a terrorist, a mutineers, an enemy of the state, for Putin to U-turn makes him look weak. Sure, the leverage is there but there's no way you make him look weak and just walkway... not AND survive for very long...
Yeah, He has to have his people installed at Defence, FSB and Interior, and at that point he's in charge of the Russian Federation in all but name.
Interesting why would they leave if they don’t consider Wagner that much of a threat 🤔 Also what happens if Wagner actually manage to get into Moscow and their “enemies” are not there? Would they seize the media to broadcast for people to join them? What else can they even do in this scenario? Not sure what the game plan is here.
If Wagner takes Moscow, it's game over for Putler, His only option would be to split the country with him as the leader of the break away region.
Now, the million dollar question, what happens with the nukes? The long range balistic missiles would probably fall into Prigozhin's hands, but what happens with the ones in Belarus? Which side will Lukashenko support? Will he let Putin use this tactical weapons against Wagner troops or hand them over to Prigozhin?
Taking a physical city doesn’t really do much. You have to take over the political structure, which can move around. Short of taking the whole country I don’t see how this will work.
The best answer anyone can give to those questions are “I don’t know”. Anything else is a guess.
My guess is, if Wagner takes Moscow and Putin’s not there, Putin is done. Gorbachev wasn’t in Moscow when the last coup happened. But once a leader has lost control to this degree, it’s hard for anyone to respect them as a leader again.
Prigozhin viralled a fake video to trigger Wagners, and now Wagners seem to be calming down from freshest news I could procure. Best to not be a liberal and cheer for NATO, until the dust settles down.
This would be hilarious if there wasn’t a chance of nukes ending up in even worse hands. What a shit show, hopefully this gives Ukraine some breathing room to go even harder on the offensive.
The entire US, UK, Australian armies are chock filled with Nazis to the point they at various times have hoisted SS Nazi flags in Middle East and elsewhere publicly. What is your point?
The thing people don't realize about nukes is that you don't just build them once and bob's your uncle, you have a nuclear bomb forever. The material starts to decay and the potency of the bomb is then greatly diminished. Nukes must be maintained to keep them operational. In fact, I know westinghouse would buy old unspent weapon's grade material, and then refine/dilute the material to convert into fuel rods for nuclear power plants. Given the war, I don't know if that's still the case.
But yeah, nukes take a lot of effort and resources to maintain as far as I understand it.
I sure hope those nukes dont fall into the hands of a belligerent nation invading their neighbors and threatening to nuke anyone who gets in their way, that'd be quite an escalation!
The hobgoblin priggy is a walking corpse. You think Saruman would tolerate one of his "white hands" rebelling? Wagner is toast, and it's going to be enjoyable watching these orcs butcher their own.
Wagner group has agreed they can report direct to president to show their loyalty, they are now trying to sell it as always loyal to Putin just not the ,"bad generals at the MoD that are losing the war".
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