So looks like the main outcome of the whole thing is that Russia is now moving from SMO to CTO (Counter Terrorist Operation) status. The differences in Russian law between an SMO and CTO are pretty important.
SMO is a conventional term which describes the scope of current Russian operations in Ukraine. The conduct of the SMO does not affect life within Russia in any significant legal sense. A CTO by contrast, is a legal framework with key implications for Russian citizens, as well as people living in the area of operations.
The CTO regime is introduced and cancelled by the head of Russia’s FSB. As such it is primarily a national security measure. The purpose of a CTO regime is to prevent or minimize the consequences of any and all threats to national security, such as (but not limited to) terrorist attacks.
A brief summary of CTO legal implications:
FSB officers become part of the command structure of the military operation and participate in military planning and decision making at the highest levels.
Conscripted soldiers may be utilized in combat operations (not just mobilized reservists).
Security services may requisition property of citizens such as personal vehicles, warehouses etc for CTO use.
Strict powers of control over the exchange of information.
Communication means may be disconnected by security services without notice.
Unimpeded access to any CTO employee into any premises in Russia without the need for legal warrant.
Restrictions on freedom of movement.
Employees of FSB, Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Emergency Situations and others, become part of the CTO.
Expanded powers to security forces in who may be designated a hostile combatant. This opens the door to targeted destruction of non-military individuals.
This still smells fishy, Russia never says the truth and Putin would never admit this so easily. Seems like some sort of exit strategy for Putin not to take the blame of a failed war. But let's hope it's true
What are the chances that the attack on Russia wasn't authorised by the Russian military, but instead was something done by Russian saboteurs? Successfully turning Russia's PMC against them.
At this point, does it really matter? Russia managed to muddy the truth so much even if it were actually saboteurs no one but the most empty minded zealots would really believe it.
I'd be extremely surprised if Wagner did it to themselves. They aren't a massively large group and if they're pulling this stunt going back into Russia, I highly doubt they want to lose any more resources going into that. They can't really afford to just cut into their resources like that like Russia could do without less of an impact. Plus, if word ever got out within the group that Prigozhin ordered the bombing of his own group, he'd probably be dead in a heartbeat. Prigozhin knows his only chance of survival is probably going to be reliant on his own men so I don't think that's a risk he'd be willing to take.
I think that Russia knows they are going to lose and knew that they were likely going to use the Wagner group so they probably thought their best bet was to try and eliminate then, use whatever excuse/scapegoat they want for doing it, and then just turn around and blame the Wagner group for what happened in Ukraine. Fortunately/unfortunately, Russia is inept and failed at taking them out and now we have an army marching towards Moscow!
Somebody's getting a taste of what it could be like to become the leader of Russia or the Russian army.. If this guy overthrows Putin and ends the war in Ukraine, it would be very interesting. He probably just wants to go on killing people in peace in some other country without getting interference from incompetent generals meddling in his operation. Putin messed that up.
I doubt there's going to be an actual uprising. Prigozhin is a windbag: he never follows through. Remember when he was saying that Wagner would pull out of Bakhmut unless they get ammo 'n shit?
They didn't get munitions, and they didn't pull out.
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