Hyperreality

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Hyperreality, (edited )

He will allow the USA to become much more independent and cut off paying for other nations' wars. He will allow the USA to become much more independent and cut off paying for other nations' wars.

Kowtowing to countries like China and Russia, allowing them to win strategic victories, will make them more powerful and give them more influence on US politics. Ie. the US would become less independent.

You don't become more independent by telling countries like China that you give up.

In the case of Ukraine, they're one of the world's top exporters of grain, which is in part why food prices have been rising globally.

We don't need the rest of the world.

You do. The world has globalised. At least 40 million American jobs are directly reliant on exports. The rest of the world also produces stuff like oil. Fuel prices would skyrocket.

A lot of unprofitable stuff has also been moved overseas. It would cost money to make it in the US. Many resources are also rare in the US. Stuff like rare-earth elements. Good luck importing from countries which have signed deals with China, because they're the new super power. Combined with de-dollarisation this would also cause massive issues, rampant inflation for example. You think it's bad now? You ain't seen nothing yet.

Our military can stomp out any invaders.

No one needs to invade the US. It's cheaper to simply buy a candidate or blackmail him. This allows countries like China to push through legislation which favours their business and strategic interests. Eg. dropping support for Ukraine or dropping support of Taiwan so that China can take control of advance chip industries.

In the long term, the US would find it hard to sustain a huge military budget when facing economic turmoil and a debt crisis. Especially in relative terms. China has a population of 1.4 billion. If the US withdraws from the Asia-Pacific and Europe, they're likely to become part of the Chinese sphere of influence. A country of 300 million, will inevitably be pushed around by a power bloc of 3 billion.

Of course, none of this will convince a Trump supporter, because most base their support on emotions not reason. And once they find they can't afford to fill up on gas, or groceries, they'll blame anyone but themselves.

Hyperreality,

A lovely place to visit, but the work culture is a potential negative for those thinking of making a longterm move.

Hyperreality, (edited )

Plenty more about to be delivered too. Eg. the first Belgian F35 rolled off the production line last week. Poland's set to start receiving theirs sometime next year.

That's the interesting thing about Ukraine. Putin's clearly delaying in the hopes of a Trump win and set his hope on attrition and numbers, but at the same time a lot of EU countries are going to have F16s they want to get rid of soon. Perhaps that's why the Russians have been threatening countries like Romania, trying to dissuade them from offering logistic support to Ukrainian F16s.

Should be interesting.

Bit of a tangent, but given that the F35 will replace the F16 as a nuclear bomber for the Netherlands and Belgium, and the Germans are replacing their tornados for the same reason, I wonder if Poland might at one point become part of the nuclear sharing agreement with the US. They'll have the planes to drop them. Kinda makes sense with Kaliningrad being a thing.

Hyperreality,

To be fair, they probably confused it with a boeing 777. An easy mistake to make.

Hyperreality,

A hawk eats to survive. Because they aren't fed by humans, they exist in relatively small numbers. Too little food, if there are too many they starve. Because pet cats are also fed at home, and stray cats feed on garbage, they exist in artificially high numbers.

Why don't rabies infected humans act like rabies infected animals

This always puzzled me. Why don’t humans act much more aggressive or crazed like its often depicted with animals. Afaik there’s 2 types of rabies, “dumb” and “furious” so my question is more towards the 2nd type. For example, we never hear of rabies causing a human to accidentally bite another human so why is that?

Hyperreality,

See also:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preparedness_101%3A_Zombie_Apocalypse

And:

... the generation of a “Zombie virus” cannot be firmly excluded according to the currently available biological evidence ... In keeping with this conjecture, an interesting simulation of an imaginary Zombie outbreak reveals that most of the US population would turn into Zombies within one week from appearance of the first case ... the transformation of Rabies virus into a “Zombie virus” will always remain a tangible threat surrounding human future

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7975959/

Hyperreality,

Makes the whiskey taste sweeter.

Hyperreality,

Final sentence:

On the other hand, it needs to be said that these issues are not going to be that significant in the full picture of the war – Russia still has plenty of howitzers, continues to produce them and a few ruptured barrels are not going to deter them at all.

To quote Stalin, quantity has a quality of its own.

Hyperreality,

Have you tried "kill the poor"?

Hyperreality,

Sometimes called a Bird's Nest or a variation of that.

With stuff like this, there often are no 'correct' names. If you call it daddy-o eggs, that's what it's called in your house/family.

Hyperreality,

40 million people + communism.

Hyperreality, (edited )

Well, duh.

But it used to be behind the Iron Curtain.

None of the former Eastern Bloc countries are net contributors in this chart. Greece, Portugal, and Spain were also dictatorships not that long ago. Cyprus there's the whole Greek military Junta and Turkish invasion thing.

The only other net recipients are Malta (which doesn't receive much), and Luxemburg and Belgium. They host a lot of EU institutions.

Hyperreality,

I wonder if the cybertruck isn't just a halo model. Something to grab attention, that few people will actually ever (be able to or choose to) buy.

A bit like how everyone thinks the gullwing doors on the Model X are really cool, but ultimately almost everyone ends up buying the model Y, which is a stylistically boring, dated, but practical crossover SUV.

Hyperreality,

Favourites Star Trek: Birth of the Federation (Master of Orion, but it's Star Trek) and Klingon Honour Guard.

I used to play a lot of Star Trek Online, but honestly that really felt like a job once you reached the end game, a joyless experience that made me feel like I was wasting my life.

Hyperreality, (edited )

The Netherlands is far less progressive than people think it is. Tolerating something is not the same as condoning or accepting it.

No one who knows the Netherlands was surprised by Wilders winning a lot of votes in the last election. No one who knows the Netherlands is surprised that it's taken this long to even think about legalising weed.

Congress approves bill barring any president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO (thehill.com)

Congress has approved legislation that would prevent any president from withdrawing the United States from NATO without approval from the Senate or an Act of Congress. The measure, spearheaded by Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), was included in the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which passed out of...

Hyperreality, (edited )

This deterrent effect doesn’t come just from the NATO treaty ... Deterrence comes from the Kremlin’s conviction that Americans really believe in collective defense, that the U.S. military really is prepared for collective defense, and that the U.S. president really is committed to act if collective security is challenged. Trump could end that conviction with a single speech, a single comment, even a single Truth Social post, and it won’t matter if Congress, the media, and the Republican Party are still arguing about the legality of withdrawing from NATO. Once the commander in chief says “I will not come to an ally’s aid if attacked,” why would anyone fear NATO, regardless of what obligations still exist on paper? ... When I asked several people with deep links to NATO to imagine what would happen to Europe, to Ukraine, and even to Taiwan and South Korea if Trump declared his refusal to observe Article 5, all of them agreed that faith in collective defense could evaporate quickly. Alexander Vershbow, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and a former deputy secretary-general of NATO, pointed out that Trump could pull the American ambassador from his post, prevent diplomats from attending meetings, or stop contributing to the cost of the Brussels headquarters, all before Congress was able to block him: “He wouldn’t be in any way legally constrained from doing that.” Closing American bases in Europe and transferring thousands of soldiers would take longer, of course, but all of the political bodies in the alliance would nevertheless have to change the way they operate overnight. James Goldgeier, an international-relations professor at American University and the author of several books on NATO, thinks the result would be chaotic. “It’s not like you can say, ‘Okay, now we have another plan for how to deal with this,’ ” he told me. There is no alternative leadership available, no alternative source of command-and-control systems, no alternative space weapons, not even an alternative supply of ammunition. Europe would immediately be exposed to a possible Russian attack for which it is not prepared, and for which it would not be prepared for many years.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/01/trump-2024-reelection-pull-out-of-nato-membership/676120/

Hyperreality, (edited )

He won't be able to withdraw from the treaty itself.

He'll be able to publicly say he won't defend NATO allies, he'll be able to withdraw troops, withdraw diplomats, withdraw ambassadors, no longer have US personell attend meetings, refuse to continue funding NATO HQ, sabotage command and control, undermine leadership, and on and on, until the NATO treaty is barely worth the paper it's written on, leaving European NATO wholly unprepared for a potential invasion. It's too late to prepare for that if they start right now.

Russia might then take a gamble. A lot of people thought they wouldn't take that gamble in 2014. People thought they wouldn't take that gamble in 2022. People think they won't take that gamble if Trump gets re-elected.

Or Russia doesn't take that gamble. They simply engage in provocations. Military exercises near the border. Bomber runs which are aborted at the last moment. Some more extravagent extra-territorial assassinations. The chance of a miscalculation skyrockets, the chance of accidentally starting a war increases significantly.

Hyperreality, (edited )

The article suggest this legislation has bi-partisan support.

I'm afraid Americans will have to decide if this is a good or bad thing based on the merits of the case and the actual legislation, rather than on which party is in favour of it.

Hyperreality, (edited )

Normally liberals aren’t quite so mask-off ... please, tell me how you square this circle.

Sorry, not American, so I found your question confusing.

From the article above:

The measure, spearheaded by Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.),

Both parties seem to be in favour of limiting the power of the president to withdraw from NATO.

This doesn't seem to be a simple partisan issue, as this legislation has bipartisan support.

Hyperreality,

I view this as extremely troubling and undermining the separation of powers.

Not American, but I don't get why. AFAIK your constitution literally says that the senate gets a say in treaties. Article II, section 2:

He shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur

Now obviously, that's far more rare in recent history, IRC stuff mainly gets done by executive agreements, but that's mainly because the government signs far more crap. Makes perfect sense that congress gets a say in the big stuff. Prime example I can think of, is the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, which was signed by the president but not ratified by congress. I'm sure there are more. Not something particularly new.

In fact, I googled and apparentlyt the most recent vote was on the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, which Obama had signed but was ultimately rejected by congress. That was unfortunate, but I don't see how that undermined the seperation of the powers either.

if you are viewing American democracy through the view of parties you don’t actually support democracy at all.

Congress is elected, no? This legislation was approved by an overwhelming majority.

If anything, as an outsider I find it troubling that the presidency has become more and more imperial. The president's just one guy. Obviously, what do I know, I'm just a foreigner. Maybe the US is different than France, which has similar issues. But plenty of your countrymen agree and historically agreed with me:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_presidency

Article mentions FDR, Bush and Obama. So not simply a partisan issue either.

Hyperreality, (edited )

Oh, I remember you. With the apparently non-ironic Communist East Germany avatar. You never did respond to my previous comment. I'll copy paste the relevant bits again to refresh your memory:

I wrote:

The East German government opposed Apartheid. We now know that behind the scenes IMES, run by the East German deputy foreign minister and Stasi employees, sold dozens of shipments of weapons to Apartheid South Africa. Source: Van Vuuren, H. (2018). Apartheid guns and money: A Tale of Profit. Weidenfeld & Nicolson.

You called this a fairy tale. But then never responded when I posted this:

Van Vuuren’s ... and his researchers ... combed through over 2 million pages of documents, many of them reluctantly declassified and released by state agencies pursuant to applications brought under access to information legislation. They amassed 40,000 documents from 25 public archives and various collections ... Their detailed investigations of the sustained, multi-pronged complicity of governments (including all five permanent members of the UN Security Council), banks, defence corporations, intelligence officials and private individuals in sanctions-busting activities are distilled in stark infographics peppered throughout the book.

Ie. also the USSR and Communist China.

And this:

Until the fall of the Wall, Western pharmaceutical companies conducted drug trials in East German hospitals. More than 50,000 patients served as subjects, often without their knowledge, and many died. The human experiments haven't been fully investigated to this day despite fresh evidence of wrongdoing.

To not bore you, I'll add this too:

Kommerzielle Koordinierung (English: Commercial Coordination), or "KoKo" for short, was a secret commercial enterprise in East Germany, run by Stasi officer Alexander Schalck-Golodkowski. ... Its main goal was to bring foreign currency to the German Democratic Republic ... Its operations were controlled by Erich Honecker, Erich Mielke, and Günter Mittag. KoKo was involved in illegal arms deals with Iran, Third World regimes, and even the CIA; "selling" East German political prisoners to West Germany ... importing luxury items for the top nomenklatura of the Socialist Unity Party.

And another bonus:

Iraq exported oil to East Germany, which exported military vehicles and weapons to Iraq. In 1982, East Germany exported weapons both to Iran and Iraq, which were at war with each other.

TLDR

  • the DDR (and other communist countries) covertly sold weapons to Apartheid South Africa, Iran, the CIA, and third world regimes.
  • profited off a war which cost something like 2 million lives, many of them civilians
  • the communist regime sold political prisoners for profit and profited off often deadly human experimentation
  • the profits were partly used to fund the luxury lifestyle of the nomenklatura, the communist elite.
Hyperreality,

Tarantino is overrated. You have to watch a lot of movies to come to this realisation, because otherwise you don't realise his movies are often in large part a collage of other movies. Movies which did what he does better. That means that it doesn't actually matter that Tarantino is overrated for most movie goers. More generally, this is why critics' opinions don't actually matter that much. They've watched too many movies and likely know too much about movies, to tell the average audience goer if they'll enjoy a movie.

Once you've watched a few thousand movies, and especially if you've ever studied film or read a few books about it, you'll often find you enjoy interesting but shit movies more, than very well made but unoriginal movies. People who truly love film, invariably aren't snobs. They enjoy absolute trash, they enjoy arty farty stuff. If someone has a related degree or even a doctorate or works in the industry, the likelihood is high that they're also a fan of B-movies. They don't need to pretend to be knowledgeable, because they are. A film snob will bore you with the details of a Tarkovski movie. A cinephile is more likely to bang on about 80s horror movies, lesbian vampire sexploitation movies, Albert Pyun's Cyborg, or Troma's The Toxic Avenger.

Hyperreality,

This is probably true of Citizen Kane. However, this isn't true of all the arty farty, black and white, older, or foreign stuff.

Some of those aren't just 'good for their time', highly rated because they were/are innovative/interesting, or because people want to be pretentious. They're still fucking good.

Eg. I watched Tokyo Story (1953) when I was in my early twenties. Tops critics lists. Seems like it's just another pretentious movie. Black and white, boring, pondorous, gave up on it. Watched it a few years later when I had a bit more life experience. Hit me like a truck. Openly wept in the movie theatre.

Sometimes if you push through, you will be rewarded.

Hyperreality,

Brand/name recognition + marketing.

It's part of the blockbuster model, which does everything it can to reduce risk. Before the 70s, studios would go bust when an expensive movie flopped. Studios became very risk averse, especially for the expensive stuff. So they make a sequel to a movie that's done well, or a plot similar to that of a movie that's previously done well, based on an intellectual property that sold well in another medium(comic, book, tv-show, ...), in a genre that's previously done well with audiences, starring actors people previously liked, preferably very attractive actors so that audiences like looking at them, pushed by a saturation marketing campaign that gets as many people to watch it on the opening weekend as possible, so that if it sucks they can't tell their friends not to go and see it. It's like McDonalds. It's not the best meal you'll ever eat, but you know what you're getting, so you won't have wasted two hours or your life, or shit yourself after eating it.

Also, video killed the radio star. It's rare to be incredibly beautiful. It's rare to be incredibly talented. It's incredibly rare to be both. If you have to pick one, pick the incredibly beautiful actor, who looks good on posters and in promotional material. Acting isn't that hard. Even a pretty moron can be a passable actor.

Hyperreality, (edited )

It's been a while, and he references dozens of movies, so much so that you're watching his movies and think "wait, I've seen this before" and then you're distracted by the next scene you've seen before. But off the top of my head Vanishing Point, Foxy Brown, Lady Snowblood, Bruce Lee movies, and the Dirty Dozen.

But don't watch those. I probably enjoyed Vanishing Point the most, Bruce Lee in Game of Death is also fun, but often they have a few good scenes, the ones that Tarantino copied (sometimes poorly), but the rest of the movie can be a bit meh. Instead watch Oldboy, Lady Vengeance, In the Mood for Love, Infernal Affairs, Unforgiven, and (why not) Enter the Void. Not that those are my favourite movies, but they're movies that shouldn't bore you.

Hyperreality,

At a certain point you realize anime relies heavily on its perpetual fandom refresh, with new fans replacing the ones who “aged out.”

Very good point.

Hyperreality,

Oh, don't get me wrong. You're not wrong to enjoy them. They're still fun to watch.

It's just that IME they're less 'great' if you've watched a lot of the movies they're based on.

Also, Tarantino is an excellent stepping stone to discovering some great stuff. He's a true film nerd, so he knows his movies.

Hyperreality,

Thanks for recommendation. I'll add it to the list.

Hyperreality,

Almost all art is influenced by other art. But Tarantino very closely copies some scenes.

Think a literal collage, made up of photocopied bits of another work, rather than a painting inspired or influenced by another work. Tarantino is honest about this.

It's like Andy Warhol's Mona Lisa:

Hyperreality, (edited )

Almost all art is influenced by other art. But Tarantino very closely copies some scenes. Think a literal collage, made up of photocopied bits of another work, rather than a painting inspired or influenced by another work. Tarantino is honest about this.

It's a bit like Andy Warhol's Mona Lisa:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colored_Mona_Lisa

Is that a great painting? I quite like it, it's iconic, but it's not the Mona Lisa, and Warhol is not Da Vinci.

People who haven't watched a lot of movies, think Tarantino is Da Vinci. That he created an iconic scene, like Da Vinci painted the Mona Lisa.

People who have watched a lot of movies, realise he's Warhol. There's an iconic scene, but it's based on an original work, like Warhol's Mona Lisa.

There's nothing wrong with Warhol. Hell, it's ok to think that Warhol is a better artist than Da Vinci, think that Warhol's Mona Lisa is a better painting than the original Mona Lisa, art is subjective after all.

But it's a mistake to think Warhol is a genius, because he painted the Mona Lisa. He didn't. That was Da Vinci. If you're going think Warhol is a genius, you should think he's a genius because he took an existing work and manipulated it in a way that is genius.

Hyperreality,

Here's a not entirely implausible scenario:

  1. Putin 'wins' in Ukraine.
  2. Trump wins or 'wins' the election.
  3. President Trump (again) says he won't protect European NATO allies.
  4. NATO is effectively dead. The US nuclear umbrella no longer protects Europe.
  5. An emboldened Putin, engages in constant provocations and distractions.
  6. Some EU members are forced to drastically increase defense spending. Others come to the conclusion that acquiring a nuclear deterrent is now a necessity. Populist Putin verstehers win elections in some European countries, in part thanks to support from an emboldened Kremlin, promising to reduce defense spending. The EU project effectively dies. Europe is divided.
  7. A large part of the EU now kowtows to China.
  8. Because Europe is weakened, Putin continues to cause provocations and a miscalculation is made OR Russia deliberately invades the Suwalki gap (which is already indefensible now), thereby connect Kaliningrad with Russia. Putin's allies have regularly suggested that this is part of the plan.
  9. Europe is now at war with Russia. The US does not intervene, because of Trump or his isolationist successor.
  10. Europe is weakened from decades of underinvestment, weapons caches are depleted having supported Ukraine, Europe hasn't had enough time (or will) to properly re-arm, Europe is divided, it is not clear who will protect who.
  11. Certain European countries feel existentially threatened. They have no conventional military response to Russian aggression. Russia is making steady gains.
  12. Some European countries still have a non-conventional military response.
  13. A nuclear war starts in Europe.
  14. Most importantly for American readers, this significantly raises fuel prices.
  15. Half the population blames a long dead Biden and soy based diets.
Hyperreality,

That's because Americans are dumb. You should be more like us Europeans and blame foreigners, migrants and supranational institutions like the EU which are preventing our magnificent national politicians from putting 'our' people first. /s

sigh

Hyperreality,

France has been ambivalent about deploying nuclear weapons for anything other than defense of La Patrie, perhaps strategically so. There is also a very real chance of a far right take-over in France, they're in the pocket of Russia. The far left likely is too. France is unreliable.

The UK however has been quite explicit about guaranteeing eastern Europe. The problem is that Putin consistently underestimates their resolve, and in the event that Ukraine falls, may make the calculation that the UK wouldn't respond.

Hyperreality, (edited )

Doesn't always work. Phones can turn themselves on. You can't remove the battery anymore either.

Personally, I just accept that my privacy will always be violated using a smart phone, especially because I'm forced to use google and whatsapp. But I leave my phone at home when possible, especially if I'm thinking of attending a protest or doing stuff, and chuck it in a muffled/closed draw when I'm not using it.

Hyperreality,

It's false. Not this time. We created it. It's totally made up. Pure Fiction.

Hyperreality,

Bit of a tangent, but I find it insane that the US spent over 2000 billion to fight the war in Afghanistan, but congress is unwilling to authorise giving the Ukrainians 60 billion. A relatively small amount, that means Ukrainians can keep fighting Russia, decreasing the likelihood of American troops ever having to get involved in a war in Europe.

Hyperreality,

I did the sums, and the US would have been able to fund a large moonbase for the next century, mine asteroids AND seriously begin colonising Mars.

But instead of becoming an interplanetary power, the US chose to blow up brown farmers.

Hyperreality,

This is why the EU is sometimes called a regulatory super power. Because the market is so large and important, the rest of the world often adopts EU regulations. Whether it's GDPR or environmental standards, it's cheaper to make one EU compliant version of your product or part than different versions for different markets.

Not any other kind of super power though, we're far too busy squabbling amongst ourselves. Some still haven't learnt the lessons of the last two world wars.

Hyperreality, (edited )

Ugh.

I was thinking of reinstalling skyrim, a game I've paid for multiple times, but I won't now. This will almost certainly break some of the mods I usually use. I mean, fucking hell. The game's over 10 years old now. Plenty of people have bought it more than once.

And yes, I know that you can prevent updates, but I've had the thing update anyway even when I disabled that. Forget about verifying file integrity.

Can't we just enjoy the game we paid for, without Bethesda trying to fuck us over again?

Imagine if you bought a car, and the car company came over to your house without your permission, and started fiddling with rims so that the tyres you bought no longer fit.

Hyperreality,

Eh.

Some people take years to learn to play guitar poorly.

Some people pick it up in a month.

Natural talent and an ability to follow directions goes a long way.

Hyperreality,

Just think of the anorexic supermodels of the 1990s

Heroin chic is back btw.

Hyperreality,

Donald Tusk(pronounced Toosk) is the sane one. He replaced someone from the right wing PiS(pronounced piss).

Hyperreality,

It's a shame really. It is possible to make good biblically inspired SF.

Eg. CS Lewis's Space Trilogy. Milton's Paradise Lost is arguably proto-SF. Inspired Ursula K. Le Guin's Paradises Lost. More famously, Frankenstein also draws heavily on Paradise Lost. The whole religion thing in Frank Herbert's work is also really interesting. Whether it's Dune or The Jesus Incident.

Of course, IME religious fundamentalists are unlikely to be well read, even reading the bible seems like a struggle for them. So you get turds like this.

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