[Perun] Ukraine's Counteroffensive - Breach, not Breakthrough: Minefields, tactics and emerging lessons

Description:
After more than four months of fighting, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is grinding on. There have been none of the rapid mechanised advances many Ukrainian allies hoped for. Instead, there has been a hard, grinding assault intended to slowly break into, and eventually through, the main belt of Russian fixed defences.

Today I want to look at the way the counteroffensive has evolved over time, what we’ve learned about Russian defences and tactics, and what all of that might mean as months of mud and winter cold grow ever closer.

MataVatnik,

I listen to a handful of the heavy hitter analysts. I was skeptical about Perun but this guy is legit, especially considering he’s more well known in the pop culture layman side of the crown in this war.

Candelestine,

One of these days he’s going to have to give us some of his educational/professional background. He clearly has experience, and while I understand the importance and desire for online anonymity, if you keep growing then eventually your celebrity reaches a point where it’s no longer feasible.

Puschkul, (edited )

What additional info do you want or see other people demanding? Perun hinted that he works in Defense Procurement and that he studied history at university. As for circumstancial evidence, Lazerpig and Animarchy stated that they have been in contact with him, but that he couldn’t have joined the podcast as Perun wasn’t cleared for that.

Candelestine,

In order to have full credibility, hints aren’t good enough. Until we have more complete knowledge, (what school, what tier of degree, how many years of professional experience, private sector or public, etc etc etc) then he must always remain an anonymous rando on the internet, and only fools trust anonymous randos on the internet completely. Stripping away the anonymity allows for increased trust, through transparency.

However, it would also be dangerous for him, since he could conceivably be thought to be an enemy of Russia. So, he really does need that protection that anonymity grants.

But then, what I’m saying is he will eventually have no choice. Someone is going to doxx him someday, if he doesn’t do it voluntarily. So, he’ll need to replace the shield granted by anonymity with something else, or live in fear.

Ryan McBeth carries a gun and has 20 years of infantry experience with active duty combat. Perun may not be so lucky. So, I feel for the guy. He’s stuck between a rock and a hard place of sorts.

Pogogunner,
@Pogogunner@kbin.social avatar

In what way do you think his anonymity influences his credibility?

Candelestine,

Same way it always does, an anonymous source is always inherently less credible. If I believe him a certain percentage now, I would believe him more if his real life name and reputation were on the line.

Then any quantity and diversity of experience helps. The more the better.

MataVatnik,

It doesn’t matter if he’s a rando, just don’t use him as your only source. I have multiple sources and I cross reference each analysts conclusions and that’s how I weed out the trash.

Candelestine, (edited )

Right. I’m not saying him being a rando is some huge fucking problem or something. I’m just saying, it has disadvantages, and he’s going to have to give it up someday anyway.

I’m not complaining about his anonymity or something, I’m not sure how this is being interpreted. I’m just chit-chatting about the guy.

edit: To clarify, I never said I want or I need to know who he is. I said he’s gonna have to do it someday, whether he likes it or not. That’s all.

MataVatnik,

Got you dude, same here, just talking.

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