Right now, the main talking point driving it up is China, not Ukraine.
Which may not even happen. China has some financial problems both short (real estate crisis) and long (one-child policies causing a population crunch with lots of old people and few young people). It’s thought that they need to invade Taiwan in the next 8 years if they’re going to do it at all, but that window may already be closing.
Not that any of that ever got in the way of building an even bigger navy.