I think we can pretty safely say it’s not number 2. From what I found here transfem individuals slightly out number transmasc individuals and both out number ‘gender nonconforming’ individuals.
Of the 1.3 million adults who identify as transgender, 38.5% (515,200) are transgender women, 35.9% (480,000) are transgender men, and 25.6% (341,800) reported they are gender nonconforming
So more transfem individuals but not in the amount to explain the observed proportions in egg_irl.