Not that I give a fuck whether the UMC survives, but you are correct. The bigots are leaving the denomination and many/most that left joined the Global Methodist Church.
The only reason that the UMC wasn’t gay as fuck years ago is because the denomination is global and the African churches are bigoted against LGBTQ+. Their votes plus a fifth of USA congregations was enough to guarantee a schism. They’re just being strategic about the breakup because of how property is owned in the denomination.