The Impact of the Kakhovka Dam Breach on the New Ukrainian Counteroffensive

Submission StatementAn excellent look into the feasibility of a Dnipro crossing, starting from first principles and satellite images of the terrain. In my opinion, this is the definitive assessment of the prospects of a Ukrainian offensive across the Dnipro, at least in the short term. Special attention should be paid to the second- and third-to-last paragraph–while a crossing would undoubtedly be difficult, it does come with some excellent tactical benefits, not least the element of surprise.

Riley McCabe is a program coordinator and research assistant with the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Alexander Palmer is a research associate with the Transnational Threats Project at CSIS. Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. is senior fellow for imagery analysis with the iDeas Lab and Korea Chair at CSIS.

Another key constraint on a Ukrainian offensive across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast is the logistics operations that would have to follow to support a large and sustained offensive. Forces can only fight if they are supplied, and Ukraine would have to regularly cross the river to deliver ammunition, fuel, vehicle parts, and reinforcements to its units on the far bank. Without such supply lines, any forces committed would risk being isolated in a Russian counterattack or be unable to exploit the success of an initial assault.

The width of the Dnipro River and lack of existing bridges means that Ukrainian logistics and follow-on forces would need to establish new bridging, rely on ferries, or a combination of both. During its 2022 withdrawal from the city of Kherson, Russia used ferries to move troops and equipment across the river, as shown below. Ukraine presumably refrained from targeting Russia’s ferry operation because it wanted the Russians out of the city. Today, however, Russia would attempt to strike the vulnerable dock and loading areas if Ukraine were to fail to first push back enemy indirect fires. Any bridging operation across the river would need to account for the same threat of indirect fires.

By delaying a potential offensive in Kherson Oblast, the dam’s breach increases pressure on ongoing offensive operations elsewhere along the front. Russia is already reportedly redeploying units from the south to reinforce defensive positions further north. These redeployments will increase the number of Russian troops available to defend against Ukrainian attacks and may free operational reserves to contain Ukrainian breakthroughs or conduct counterattacks.

Even still, a Ukrainian offensive across the Dnipro River remains possible in the coming months. Common knowledge of an operation’s difficulty can work in the attacker’s favor by generating operational surprise. The landing at Inchon in 1950 during the Korean War was initially dismissed by both UN and North Korean forces as too difficult, but the amphibious assault by UN forces against underdefended enemy positions took and created the conditions the near-total collapse of the In Min Gun within a month.

A successful crossing of the Dnipro River near Kherson is extremely unlikely to have such a dramatic strategic effect, but it could catch Russian forces off guard and allow Ukraine to bypass the defensive systems Russia has constructed further north and strike important groundlines of communication leading from Crimea.

For now, however, a Ukrainian offensive in Kherson Oblast is extremely unlikely to be viable for at least several weeks because the reconnaissance and planning that determines the success of any major river-crossing operation will need to begin again. In the meantime, Russia will continue to capitalize on the defensive advantages it gained from the breach.