Yeah, that must be it! I’m listening to the audiobook in German (hence the spelling mistake) and it just didn’t make any sense to me at all. Especially since Mr. Punch is mentioned as the violent puppet, but then on the carriage it’s not “Mr. Punch”, but Kasper. I’m still not quite sure why this should give the embassy a hint that it was Dodger who did that (something like that was said).