Most people would probably end up paying the subscription rather than relearning everything they already know. It may have long term impacts, but, like… I don’t think this would make the average person switch to Linux. If any migration happens I’d expect more people to switch to Macs than Linux over time because that’s more of a mainstream option.
That said there’s lots of interesting stuff going on in the Linux world right now, and it’s slowly but surely becoming a more interesting option for a lot of people. Valve’s work on Proton / Linux in general is pretty huge. I still think you’d need a huge marketing push to convince the average person (which people on Lemmy are not) to install Linux themselves, or prefer buying a laptop with Linux pre-installed, though. It could happen eventually, and has happened in special cases (like the Steam Deck)… But short term I think most people are just going to pay a yearly subscription rather than upend their entire computing life.