I don’t know what makes you so confident that inferences from the current state of AI are foolish. The black box problem is extremely tricky. This is a harder problem than the protein folding problem, which people thought we’d make quick progress on given all the other progress we made on “harder” problems, like the structure of the atom. This “simple” problem turned out to be one of the hardest in science. Progress looks fast now, but it’s not trivial. Some things may surprisingly remain an enduring mystery. We don’t know yet either way.