I really believe in using Occam’s razor for all things Star Wars. Lucas was a giant mess. He made shit up on the fly and would leap at any chance to retcon himself.
The phantom menace is as simple as you say. I also believe that “the prophecy” was another bullshit trope he stole. It’s vague bc he had no idea what to do with it. Convenient that fans would end up arguing about it for decades.