jaschaschmitz

jaschaschmitz, 7 months ago

@histodons #Simulations in #digitalhistory quote I:

"Although simulation is not new, simulated history is rare enough that historians may not be aware of its possibilities and limitations"
Lance E. Davis, 1975, "Review of 'Late Nineteenth-century American development' by Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1975" in: History and Theory 15(3), p. 330. https://doi.org/10.2307/2504732

jaschaschmitz, 7 months ago

@histodons

Davis also is sure that the book "cannot fail to have a significant impact on the direction of research in economic history." 😬

Williamson is one of the earlier ones to employ sims methods on a large scale. Ofc, this one is about economic history, as are many of the early sims. assoc. with New Economic History (not all though!).

Apart from the bold prediction at the start, it's a very good review, btw., discussing methodology and epistemology of historical sims. 🤖

jaschaschmitz, 7 months ago

@independentpen Ah yeah, important clarification, thanks for asking! "simulated history" here means historical simulation models, ie. aspects of history modeled in a computer. So kind of faked history, but with scientific purpose. 😄

jaschaschmitz, 6 months ago

@independentpen for sure! Although examples might vary extremely in what is actually done in detail.
One nice example, which is also one of the earliest historical simulations I found, is about simulating how early polynesian settlers were able to navigate the pacific ocean to find islands. So in the model the geographic space was modeled, with proper distances, ocean currents and weather patterns. Added are then boats which have properties assumed to be true to the originals of ca. 800CE...

jaschaschmitz, 6 months ago

@independentpen That was ca. in the 60s. There was debate how big the role of currents and weather was in the exploration of Polynesia (ie, "luck"), compared to, e.g., purposeful navigation. This model suggested that its most probably not luck. You can find it here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/j.1834-4453.1972.tb00159.x

Work on this started as early as 1958. As far as I am aware, that makes it the earliest historical simulation. @histodons

jaschaschmitz, 6 months ago

@histodons #Simulations in #digitalhistory quote II:

"The use of computers will require historians to be more
precise in their thinking about the dimensions of the problem to be analyzed. Vague conceptualization and inadequately formulated
research problems are magnified by the computer.
Since the validity of computer analysis is contingent upon the competence of the user,
historians must give careful attention to systematic conceptualization of important research problems."

jaschaschmitz, 6 months ago

@histodons
"[History] is usually written by one person who, immersing himself in the materials, attempts to interpret what he finds. But as each new technique or method of interpretation becomes a part of the discipline of history, the need for special knowledge and training becomes more apparent [...]

The implication, therefore, is that history will become a group effort, the result of a collaboration between numerous specialists."

jaschaschmitz, 6 months ago

@histodons
#Simulations in #digitalhistory quote IIIb:

"Computer analysis [...] really is an extension of ideas and concepts already inherent in the historical methodology.

The computer also opens the possibilities of predictive history, certainly the most controversial aspect, but by exercising a certain amount of caution in his problems and his predictions, the historian might profitably enter the field already pioneered by the psychologist and sociologist."

jaschaschmitz, 6 months ago

@histodons
#Simulations in #digitalhistory quote III reference:

Vern L. Bullough, 1967, "The Computer and the Historian: Some Tentative Beginnings" in: Computers and the Humanities, Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 61-64. https://www.jstor.org/stable/30199211

jaschaschmitz, 6 months ago

@histodons This is a great and interesting read for the history of digital hisory in general, lots more quotable bits. Also one of the early and few genuine historians mentioning simulations, albeit a bit misguiding as "predictive history".