Hopfgeist

Hopfgeist, 6 months ago

The craziest thing is that a single person can decide what the representatives can vote on, and thus keep the entire country hostage. In many civilised democracies, any faction (usually there are more than two) in parliament can introduce bills to be voted on. Which would make this whole thing impossible, because there clearly is a broad majority for a huge Ukraine aid package. But they don’t get to vote on it, because a minority can demand that unrelated stuff get tacked onto the same bill. What does Israel (armed to the teeth anyway, and not currently putting their might to good use, losing what sympathy they might have had after the October 7 atrocities) and US border security have to do with Ukraine? You want to vote on those issues, too? Fine, introduce a bill and vote on them. Separately.

Hopfgeist, 6 months ago

They are going to build the Fuchs and the Luchs? The Luchs has ben decommissioned by the Bundeswehr and replaced by the Fennek and the Marder quite some time ago. It was, however, impressively silent. With all auxiliary aggregates turned off (but the main diesel idling), and rolling slowly on sand, it could literally tap you on the shoulder with its 20 mm autocannon before you would hear it. The Fuchs is just an armoured personnel carrier with no armament. Both are amphibious, which may become important.

Hopfgeist, 6 months ago

Thanks. It was my mistake then, as they didn’t translate Fuchs. I just happen to know Fuchs and Luchs from personal experience, and just assumed.

Hopfgeist, 6 months ago

Thanks for the clarification.

Hopfgeist, 6 months ago

I think you are spot on.

S300 are anti-aircraft missiles. Converting them for surface-to-surface use is very inaccurate. So they are not targeting specific civilian objects, they just don’t care. If they aim them roughly at civilian areas, it can still be a war crime, and it is tactically and strategically mostly useless.

Hopfgeist, 6 months ago

Mirnograd : the Russians hit 2 missiles from the S-300 air defense system. The police department was destroyed.

Is this a translation error? Did the S300 really hit two Ukrainian S300 air defence missiles? That would be an unexpected operational success. I assume a “with” is missing: “the Russians hit with 2 missiles …”

Hopfgeist, 6 months ago

What are we looking at? Incendiary cluster munitions?

Hopfgeist, 6 months ago

The way I see it: it is either mostly ineffective (against infrastructure) or a war crime if used again against people (civilians or combatants).

Hopfgeist, 6 months ago

Not sure this has been the official “explanation” this time, but looking at it from a technical side, there isn’t normally anything in a transformer flammable enough to be ignited by a cigarette, even if you could drop it directly into the cooling oil (which you can’t: they are normally sealed). My understanding is that you need a sustained arc over several minutes of “normal” electric current, or several lightning strikes to heat up the oil enough to catch fire. That requires some major fault. I guess a suitable type of warhead could cause it eventually, but not immediately.

Hopfgeist, 6 months ago

Can transformer cooling oil form flammable vapour? Maybe, I guess, if it’s hot enough, but I’m not sure. But when the transformer gets hot and explodes it may cause an oil spray fine enough to create a fireball, which may look similar. The first stage of a “proper” BLEVE is normally the “expanding vapor” cloud, which is visible as such, before it has mixed with air sufficiently (and/or reaches an ignition source) to burn and form the fireball. Then again, in smaller ones, and in the dark, the vapour cloud may be so short-lived that it cannot be seen.

Hopfgeist, 6 months ago

I wouldn’t be surprised if

Neither would I. Just saying that “smoking at the workplace” alone won’t suffice. Unlike in, say, a fireworks munitions factory.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Yes, or other light aircraft. Not military. But what is or was in the building is anyone’s guess.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

That thing still looks like a combat robot from a science fiction movie. Especially the muzzle devices look so silly. I know they are important as they measure the actual muzzle velocity, which helps to make it as accurate as it is, but still: http://leopardclub.ca/reviews/Meng/Gepard/images/real-muzzle-2.jpg

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

They need more Gepards! They can do it with fewer shots, I guess. But even though slow and low, hitting those things with manually tracked FlaK is no small feat. Well done!

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

I heard about 60 from Jordan. Have to check my sources.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

I was going to say, “burnt” seems like a bit of an understatement. It even blew the engine block to pieces.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

It’s over 1,000 km from Ukraine; I don’t think they have anything with that range. That is beyond even the elusive Taurus in its original form.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Oh no, another red line! How many were there now?

Normally, the Russian air defense should deal with Tomahawks easily (they’ve had decades to prepare: Tomahawks are nuclear-capable, so it was a top priority to develop the look-down shoot-down capabilities of the MiG-31 and others), but the way it’s been going recently I would give it a substantial chance of getting through to Alabuga.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago (edited 7 months ago)

I think the Gepard is probably the most cost-effective way of shooting down Shaheds. These fly low and slow, exactly what the Gepard was designed for. I didn’t know Jordan had so many of them, but this is good news and will help protect Ukrainian infrastructure during winter, together with additional Patriot and IRIS-T from Germany. I hope they can also secure enough ammunition.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Edit: expected delivery, may 2024… well shit.

Yes, so not for this winter. Sh*t indeed. They really need them.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Yes, literally called “Flakpanzer” in German. Or “Flugabwehrkanonenpanzer” in its full form.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Very unlikely. The West has enough sources in the Kremlin. We would know when he died. Things like this cannot be kept secret.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

I had no idea that the North-Koreanification of Russia was already that far advanced. Propaganda and music so hilariously over the top that nobody could possibly believe any of it, and yet everyone must pretend to.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

At first I thought “Yes”. Everyone helps defending the country. But thinking about I have to agree with you 100%. Children must be shielded from war and given a normal childhood as far as possible. Don’t lie to them when they ask why they have to run for shelter, or where their father is, but don’t involve them in hating and killing other people, no matter how justified it may be.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

“Speed limit enforced by aircraft.”

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

It is up to Ukraine, but I think a few points remain extremely important:

• Any gain that Russia can retain from its aggression vindicates their invasion. And they will do it again. To the Russian government, personnel losses are irrelvant.
• Any peace that does not include Ukraine in a strong alliance (read: full NATO membership) will allow Russia to rebuild military strength and attack again to finish what they started
• Any deal that Russia signs is not worth the paper, as we have seen with the wanton violation of the Budapest Memorandum, in which Russia agrees to respect the borders of Ukraine as defined in the Helsinki Accords, and not to use force or threat of force against any signatory state (which included Ukraine).
• From which follows: only a strong Ukraine, backed by credible assurances of defense by all of NATO will keep Russia from attacking again. Not a written deal alone.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago (edited 7 months ago)

That assumes the people “broaching the topic of negotiations” are the same that promised support for however long it takes. Since the negotiation-supporters have chosen to remain anonymous, this is not an assertion we can make. But we know some likely names among US Republicans, parroting Russian propaganda.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

I like how the members are all captioned as “A Princely Warrior”.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Parked aircraft are the most high-value tagets. It’s perfect for (rather: against) those. But I’m not sure if any airfields in active use remain in range, I think the Russians have evacuated Berdyansk (maybe Luhansk, too) air base. I think the AFU currently only have ATACMS with cluster munitions, so it’s no good against hardened infrastructure, only soft targets: concentrations of unarmoured vehicles and personnel.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Is there a transcript/translation available?

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Thanks. I thought I heard Nasdarovye, which I knew in the context of “Cheers!” when drinking, I guess that’s the “good health!” part.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

I would say they’re operating next to no aircraft in range of ATACMS.

They did at the time of the first ATACMS strikes, which was probably one reason why the delivery was kept secret until after the first ones had been used.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

That’s a very narrow-minded view. I thought the same thing when the iPad was new. But I changed my mind.

Sitting on the sofa and watching movies or reading news is a good application, a laptop is too clunky for that, and a phone screen is too small.

Also use as an air-navigation device (not only) light aircraft, and replacement for paper charts in airline operations. There are many legitimate uses where tablets are exactly what you want. If it’s not for you, fine.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Please don’t call it massacre. That word is only used for the indiscriminate mass-killing of uninvolved civilians. These are combatants attacking a free country, they had it coming. So while bloody, it somehow puts it on a level with the atrocities committed by Hamas four weeks ago, and it definitely is not the same. Put another way, a massacre is never justified; attacking anyone who invaded your country, is.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Thanks. The point in my eyes is, if you massacre, (or slaughter) people that implies that they were innocent, which would make the act evil. And I’d hate for the legitimate attacks on the aggressor to be seen as evil. Because they are not. Just my opinion.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Nice, one less to worry about. The Su-25 is not a fighter, though, but a ground attack aircraft, similar in role to the US A-10. Even more important to retire those.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Unless there is an actual offensive going on, these are not really needed. They are attack aircraft (short-range air-to-ground missiles and rockets, small bombs and cannons, etc.), not interceptors or aerial combat fighters. Their air-to-air capability is largely non-existent, and strictly defensive. Russia may use some in Syria, but Ukraine would be their main theatre at the moment.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Russian economy is beginning to bugle buckle under the pressure.

Otherwise that would be interesting to hear:

bugle, verb: 1. to sound a bugle; 2. to utter the characteristic rutting call of the bull elk

Joking aside, the Russian economy is effectively now a pure war economy. About 40% of government spending in 2023 was military. Not much else you can do, then. Economic growth, infrastructure, social security, whatever else the government spends money, is subordinate to the war efforts.

It is clear that that is what Ukraine currently has to do unless it wants to stop existing (with military spending having reached 44% of GPD, although most of it hasn’t been paid for by Ukraine), but for Russia it is just absolutely bonkers.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Augmented GPS can offer much better resolution, reliably on the order of a few Decimetres, if you have a reference receiver/transmitter with precisely known location nearby. GPS has very clever tricks up its sleeve if you know how to use them (which I assume the AFU do).

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Yes, in total numbers Germany is the second largest donor of military aid to Ukraine after the US. In terms of fraction of GDP, there are other nations who have donated more, Poland, Bulgaria and the Baltic republics stand out here.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Being German, I didn’t want to brag. 😉 But with all the legitimate criticism of a hesitant chancellor I’m a bit proud of what our government did achieve, although, of course, it could always be more. What currently worries me is Slovakia with a coalition government of far-left and far-right parties (maybe the Horseshoe Theory is real) stopping Ukraine aid, and possibly blocking or delaying EU funds for Ukraine. And of course who knows what’s going to happen after the next US presidential elections is anyone’s guess.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Which is a sight to behold. Before the invasion of Ukraine, German military budget was 1.3% of the GDP, although it was supposed to be 2.3 or something for NATO member states.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

They managed to adapt the Su-24 for Storm Shadow, no reason it couldn’t be done for Taurus; they are of similar size and weight.

I think the compromise was that they need to be programmed on the ground, as the aircraft avionics don’t offer a compatible complex interface, but a launch signal can be rigged. Since Both will probably be used against fixed targets (airfields, bridges, …) that is not a big drawback. Still, it needs to be done, and is not quite trivial.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Certainly looks that way. As if it wasn’t big enough already. In most pictures I have seen they have only muzzle brakes, but in some they clearly have suppressors. A useful side-effect may be to reduce the visible muzzle fire for night operation.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Bullets are deflected along surprisingly sharp bends in a barrel (or any other pipe), so it would be sufficient to hit the tank gun muzzle roughly from the front, and it would probably hit a loaded projectile.

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Is that the same woman who said they should nuke Siberia to create a NEMP to destroy all pre-1993 electronics (apparently, anything before 1993 survives any EMP, and anything after that will be destroyed, no matter where you detonate the bomb), so Russians could again live a simple life?

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Clearly you neither read my post nor looked into what the air baffle in the T320 actually looks like. So whats your point?

Hopfgeist, 7 months ago

Thanks.