No matter who actually did it. Russia would blame Ukraine/NATO/USA/The West in general, together and separately in rotation.
After that I have no real idea, who would succeed. There would be a massive power struggle both in the government and military.
There is a strong possibility that several of the autonomous regions within the Russian federation would try to break away. There is about a 20% chance of a civil war because of this.
A hardliner will take power (Putin is not the most antiwest russian politician) and then…from the total erasing of Ukraine to third world war, anything would be posible, but neither civil war nor colapse of Rusia. That is the OTAN countries wet dream.
This is very likely. If anything, the existing system will be perpetuated because there’s no replacement atm. It’s been too long in the making and it will take a lot of work to undo. Also, he may be long dead and it won’t change anything in the near future.
This said there’s always a chance for a change, but not right now.
Definitely but that’s unrelated to Putin and his direct actions. The OP’s question also doesn’t mention anything about West right Putin wrong, they are just asking what’s going to happen if Putin is no more.
Those kind of questions can not be made without context, it is not a game of words without consequences. If it is a game, just to waste time posting in this or any social network, let’s stop here.
It is about a real person, who is a leader, whose murder would spark grave consequences. And that leader actions, like taking the decision of going to war or not, are related to decisions made by other leaders. Right now there is a campaign demonizing that leader, and that campaign normalizes ideas mirrored by that kind of questions. There lots of memes, jokes and things like that asking for Putin’s dead.
If i asked, what would happen if Donald Trump were assassinated? Or Biden, or Xi Jing Pin, Erdogan, etc? At this moment when all media are strugling to influence public opinion? It won’t be a futile harmless game.
The question is purely speculative. Try swapping Putin for any western leader and then answer the actual question if it helps.
I can speculate easily what will happen if Biden is assassinated because the probability of anything is not zero. The VP will take his place and so on.
theyd probably put one of the pop stars that are members of the party and are in sound enough mind to be able to string two sentences together in his place(unlike the guy himself considering the brainrot that are his speeches, but then again the italian pm went on stage to share the same kind of schizophrenic speech). and then everyone would jointly come out to endorse the selected champion and try their best to feint normalcy.
besides, great opportunity to tighten the bolts even more and declare a domestic hunt on traitors
We (Russia) tried to assassinate Ukraine’s leader multiple times but were unsuccessful. It isn’t fair that Ukraine was successful in their attempt on our leader!
That'd probably be true for a while, but after that they'd need to start an "election" where some military commander or other higher up will take his chair.
This isn't about truth or facts. If something major happens in Russia or related to it and the president doesn't show up to talk about it, that would raise eyebrows. Now imagine that happening over and over again. Putin dying would be the perfect opportunity for the US to start swaying Russia into a civil war. They definitely don't want the president's chair to be empty and contested for.
The most useful thing to them will always be to shove anyone atop that chair before the US notices.
I’d wager the war goes from internal, to internal civil war, if Putin dies, as various power blocks try either secure their own positions/power, or reach for more.
assuming they didnt try to blame the west, which then things get far more worse for NATO states, and possibly hot
There’s got to be some kind of Vice Putin isn’t there? A guy who can step in and rule with an iron fist and keep things running? Or is this just some kind of jackal feeding frenzy sort of situation when he dies?
There is a second in line, Mikhail Mishustin. He is relatively new to the position(prime Minister) and was likely chosen for his loyalty and because he is most likely a weak political actor.
There is also Dmitry Medvedev who is currently the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia. He was the former Prime Minister and president of Russia. A long time member of Putin’s Government. He is likely a much stronger political actor. Having said that he may have had a falling out with Putin and has been sidelined for the last few years.
There are also a number of generals and the leaders of both the FSB and GRU who could bring force to bear to gain power.
It is unlikely that anyone one of these people have both the political capital and the monopoly on violence to easily take power. It is very common for strongman leaders to surround themselves with weak deputies so that they cannot be easily forced out of power by one of their own. This is in part why you tend to see autocratic regimes collapse into chaos.
It is also worth noting that there is no second inline for the president in Russia. It goes president, prime minister, nobody.
If you want to learn more about this dynamic CP Grey did a great few videos on YouTube called The Keys To Power. It explains how various types of leaders get and maintain power.
Yeah I’d imagine the troops in Ukraine would be pulled back into Russia largely to secure someone’s position in their upper ranks, with only enough to maintain defensive positions in Ukraine. If Ukraine broke through during this period it’d probably be over while Russia is distracted with internal issues.
Was Dolly done in a vat? You can clone humans no problem. It’s just the age difference that’s the problem. And you don’t get to transfer the mind but we’ll have that figure out soon too.
If Putin loses an arm, all of his doppelgängers will need to lose an arm too. Otherwise they’ll be immediately identified as doppelgängers.
It’s a pretty well known thing that Putin frequently uses lookalikes for public appearances. It’s apparently an old habit from when he was a KGB agent. So if someone snipes him from a rooftop, it’s probably not even him; He can claim to have miraculously survived the shooting, then carry on as if nothing happened.
destabilization until the Kremlin finds a new president in that time probably multiple nations would be indipendent and Ukraine would pretty much launch their offensive and the union state collapses and tv stations all across Russia hijacked
There would be a power vacuum, probably a few murders/suicides/defenstrations, and the elections scheduled for a few months from now will probably be postponed during the struggle for leadership of the country. My guess is the powers that eventually take over will agree to pull out of Ukraine, conduct a few show trials, and do whatever else they think they have to in order for the west to lift the sanctions and unlock the oligarch’s accounts.
It would please me greatly to know that Ukraine will outlive Putin.
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