Fellow home owners, are you ready for the housing market to crash?
I know I’m supposed to want it to keep going up as a wealth generator or whatever.
But like… I wouldn’t be able to afford the monthly payments if I bought my house right now and it’s scary. Also none of my friends are buying homes, none of them are even renting full places. Just like renting rooms.
Meh I don’t care. We bought a couple years ago when rates were super lower but prices were high. Our mortgage is less than rent would be and we’re not going anywhere for a long time. I think of the house as a place to live, not an investment really. Like a car. It serves a purpose and I’ll use it until I can’t anymore.
Doing extra payments when you have a 2% loan is just throwing money away. Savings accounts rates are minimum 4% right now - put your extra payments there if you’re super risk adverse. If you’re less risk adverse, buy mutual funds that match the market.
Saving accounts pay out less then 2% here and we are taxed on the amout that is held in our saving account so it is more beneficial to downplay the mortgage.
Even with the extra payments we are still going to do ETF
My condo is paid off, actually. But I still want to to crash, because the price gap between my little place and a larger home is way too big. I basically can’t upgrade unless prices fall.
As a homeowner, there is nothing to be ready for. Nothing has value unless you’re trying to buy or sell it and I’m doing neither in the near/medium future regardless of the price of my home. I bought before prices went stupid so I feel like it is unlikely any crash will do the value to below what I paid.
Non-home owner, currently I could live a hundred lives and never own a home. It must crash, and it must become regulated to prevent this from occurring.
Non-home owner of Lemmy here. I want you all to know that my fondest wish to see the housing market completely implode is strictly not personal.
My only chance to buy a house slipped away a few years ago. House prices have gone up by 50% or more in some locations, and interest rates have more than doubled. What was previously affordable is now completely outside my means to pay for each month.
My last hope now is for a 2008 repeat so I might be able to snag something up for what it’s actually worth. I certainly can’t count on the state or the government to take the housing crisis seriously enough to have them actually build more affordable housing for people to buy and drive the asking prices lower.
I feel this so much. My dad was a general contractor in California during the 2008 crash; we lost 6 houses that were either ready to sell, or still being built. So I personally know the kind of pain and suffering that a housing market crash can cause for certain people. At this point though I have to look out for me and my family, currently renting part of a way-to-small condo in an area where you’d need 3 incomes to afford a mortgage on a house big enough for all 4 of us.
So yeah, crash and burn market. Give me a chance to get us out of here.
It was a gigantic mistake to ever allow homes to become investments. That economic value growth is only possible by limiting the availability of homes near popular areas, which is by definition exclusionary meaning some people must be priced out of having a home in a place with good opportunities.
It’s not just unfair, it’s also inherently unstable. You’re eventually chasing away many of the workers you’re dependent on, you can’t avoid bubbles and crashes, etc.
Home owner, I started buying back in 2007. Been through one crash, and if another crash makes it so I can move again, fuck it. Let the whole thing just burn.
I never counted on equity, and the system was fucked from the start. At least this way I wouldn’t feel trapped.
I already have a home. I don’t need 20 of them. I’m not going to get mad about something that benefits the majority of the control. It just sucks because a market crash just means that people who already have multiple homes are going to be able to buy even more.
Hey, newer homeowner here. If the housing market crashes, does that actually affect me at all? Or is it just like, I can’t profit if I wanted to sell my house or some shit
good, fuck em. Seeing houses as an equity Builder was retarded in the first place. It’s literally not sustainable, if it’s supposed to constantly appreciate value no matter what it means that there is an ultimate threshold where it becomes unaffordable for everyone.
A house is a place to live, not a fucking financial asset to make money with.
Everything can be an asset to make money with. Before money it was bartering and you can bet your ass the home was an asset back then too. Humans value the creation of things. Assets of created thing will always exist.
This is very region dependent. But here in Canada we have 25-30 year mortgages broken up into 5 year terms, every 5 years we renegotiate our interest rate and have the option to switch lenders.
If your house value were to drop 75%, it might make it harder to switch lenders (does a bank want to lend you more than what the house is now worth).
I think there is an escape hatch here where if you stay with the same lender they will still accept you, but I honestly don’t know much about the specifics.
Things would need to get pretty bad for this to actually matter (and I suspect the government might step in if it became widespread)
It can. The housing market doesn’t impact all properties across the board, and some neighborhoods get away unscathed while others are devastated.
In the worst case scenario, having a downturn can cause a “buyer’s market”, where there are more people trying to sell their house than there are prospective buyers, so they have the power to negotiate much better deals. If you purchased your house 10 years ago for 200k, and in that time it appreciated to 400k, and then there was a sudden market downturn and it lost 50% of it’s value, your house would be worth about what you paid for it, but all your equity is gone, so you don’t profit but you are also not totally screwed.
If you bought your house for 400k right before the market downturn, you will be “underwater”, and own a property that is worth less than what you paid for it, meaning that if you tried to sell you wouldn’t get enough to cover the mortgage you owe to the lender. Forget about profit at that point.
If you plan to live in the house you are in now until you die, then none of that matters at all, really. In fact, having market downturns benefits you in that scenario because if your property is worth less money (relative to all the properties around you) you pay less in taxes and insurance. But most people don’t plan on living in the same house forever. They might want to move to a nicer house, or one in a better location, or downsize when their kids move out, etc. so it’s usually seen as a bad thing when the market crashes because you have to spend years building equity and loan amortization means that for the initial few years of your mortgage payment, you are basically paying off the interest only and barely denting the principal.
Housing as a wealth generator is a bit of a lie. Prices going up only benefit people or corporations who own multiple homes or those who rent out their homes, and the few people downsizing for retirement by selling their 2500+ sq ft for a small apartment somewhere.
For the regular Joe you always need somewhere to live, so it doesn’t matter if your houses is $100k or $1 million, that money is always going to be tied up in the house and not be spendable.
If anything the prices being high is worse for regular home owners because you’re going to be paying thousands more in interest on the mortgage that goes straight to the banks.
This was my thought, next year my escrow increases by $100 because my property is supposedly 50% more valuable? Nope, it’s a wealth stealer, not a generator.
Let’s also not forget that in a high value market you can’t magically sell a more expensive house and acquire a less expensive house of equal value. You have to downsize and the house of lesser value is still overinflated.
If anything the prices being high is worse for regular home owners because you’re going to be paying thousands more in interest on the mortgage that goes
I always wondered why people never seem to think about this side of the equation.
Your interest rate shouldn’t fluctuate with the housing market, unless you have an Adjustable Rate Mortgage. Most people choose a conventional mortgage where you’re paying interest on the value of the loan you received from the lender, not on the value of the property itself. You can voluntarily refinance the house to get a lower monthly payment if the interest rates go down, but if they go up, you’re insulated from the impact except in the fact that you now likely have less mobility because having to pay a 7% interest rate when you are used to paying your 3.5% rate on a same-value house means you can’t just sell and expect the monthly price you pay to remain the same.
Your taxes and insurance, on the other hand, do quickly balloon out of control if your property suddenly spikes up in value.
I’m not arguing in favor for house prices going up but just wanted to point out how a lot of people use the value of their home. You can pull out money from your house and your interest payments don’t change when the value of your house goes up.
I’ll give the example of my neighbor. They bought their house 10 years ago at about $250k. Interest rates were around 4.5%. We’re in a location that got really hot during the pandemic and the house value jumped to about $700k. At that moment, they had the same payments as 10 years ago. Then interest rates dropped down below 3%. His balance on the original mortgage is probably about $175k and now he refinances the house with a mortgage of $325k, pays off the old loan, and pockets $150k out of the house. But due to the lower interest rates, his payment is the same as it was 10 years ago. He just has $150k in his pocket. Meanwhile, I’m the schmuck who had to buy the identical house at $700k at 5% and pay 3x for the same house.
For the regular Joe you always need somewhere to live, so it doesn’t matter if your houses is $100k or $1 million, that money is always going to be tied up in the house and not be spendable.
I mean, you could take out a loan against your home’s appreciated value, but most people do this to put value back into the house, like remodeling or landscaping. The value isn’t totally tied behind the sale of the house itself, but your point still stands.
You point out the Catch-22 that a lot of people miss on this stuff. They get so fixated on increasing their property values because they want to screw someone over when they finally sell their house…not stopping to think that the same thing is about to happen to them when they go to buy one. Not to mention, higher property values means higher property taxes (in some places, anyway).
Yeah like it’s cool my 200k town home I bought 4 years ago is now selling for 400k (neighbor just sold for that much).
Except that means that the 350k home I was thinking might be a nice upgrade one day, is 700k.
Like I’m way more screwed over now unless I intend to like sell my home then move to the middle of nowhere. All that higher value means is property taxes like you said. But of course renters are the most screwed.
If it makes you feel good, I’d say congrats. I’ve never owned a condo and it has different considerations than a home. I sold my first house in March 2021 after I bought our current house in 2020. Both felt like some of the smartest, best times moves. I actually do wish I would have bought a more expensive house in 2020, but we’re likely buying more land in the next 2-5 years. Not holding some kind of property right now (again, idk about condos), feels like leaving stupid money on the table.
This was actually my thought process when I got divorced. It probably would have been prudent in many ways to downsize to a condo, since it’s just me, however I could afford to buy my ex out of the house and any percent gains will be off a much higher base. I’m hoping that when I do eventually downsize, that my equity will be higher than if I had a paid off condo. In your example, doubling prices gained $200k inequity for the condo owner, vs $350k gain for the house owner (of course it’s more complicated when you factor in the mortgage)
… so yeah, it would suck for the housing market to crash, or stay down
I have like 15 years left on a 30 year fixed rate. I’d like to move closer to where I work, but I don’t want another 30 year loan and a 15 year would currently be a much higher interest rate, so I’m stuck with my house until it’s close to being paid off. Doesn’t really matter what homes are costing when you have to buy another after selling. Expensive houses only help people who own multiple homes and aren’t replacing what they sell.
A bad crash can make you owe more than you can get for the house, which can make it impossible for you to move without losing money. If you lose your job or have to relocate involuntarily, property being cheaper elsewhere isn’t much consolation if you are under water on your existing loan.
Can’t wait. If it could happen in isolation and not involve a lot of people losing their jobs, I would love to see prices come down. No downside for homeowners really, the house is the same house independent of market value but taxes will decrease so monthly cost will decrease.
I’m old and know prices don’t go up forever. As soon as those “we will buy your house” signs and phone calls start, it’s near the end.
but taxes will decrease so monthly cost will decrease.
Doubt. Your local government isn’t going to cut spending just because revenue went down. And why should they? It isn’t like the workload changed. When housing collapses it isn’t like there will be less crime and less homeless and less school age students. All that stuff is going to continue to happen independently. You will either see raised rates or suddenly a lot of homes will be marked as worth more.
I’m torn, I really want to move but don’t want to play the current interest rates. I bought high but have that great interest rate. I’m also looking to move again since my job is not fully remote and my girlfriend hates my house.
My condo is paid in full. I want the market to sink like a stone.
This current housing market has everyone trapped. I cannot sell and upgrade because I’m not going to pay 7% interest on the part I don’t have in my bank account.
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