I’m so sick of this"West Taiwan" crap. It plays into the PRC narrative that China and Taiwan are inseparable. Most Taiwanese just want to live their lives without needing to worry about China invading. The official ROC territorial claims remain in part due to the 2005 Anti-Secession law of the PRC. The law provides a legal mandate to invade if Taiwan were to declare formal independence. In general the only people in Taiwan who want to govern China are older nationalists.
Even if they managed to recover all chip factories after a full scale invasion (which the Taiwanese could easily sabotage), the production is based on a lot of western technology, which they couldn’t replicate for decades. So the factories would be of little use.
Chinas economy is also very reliant on exports to western countries (US, Japan, Europe), if they invaded Taiwan that would plunge the world economy into the worst crisis ever seen that would hit China especially hard. They’re already struggling with serious demographic and other economic issues that will put them into a difficult spot in the next decades. Invading Taiwan would be very, very terrible for basically everyone, and suicide for the CCP.
I think your consideration isn’t bad and many, including myself, believe China won’t attack…unless there’s a weak US President/leadership. Consider that Crimea was invaded under Obama but Ukraine was outside the west’s protection; same can currently be said of Taiwan but Taiwan is less about what is has to offer to the west (beyond a western friendship) and more about containing China deep into their waters. Ukraine had a lot of political tensions in the early 2010s and I think Obama was stuck in a nuanced position that ultimately boiled down to: how committed and effective will Ukraine be against Russia (corruption was a huge consideration around 2014). But Obama should have done more (including the EU) sooner. This allowed Trump to play both sides: publicly lick Putin’s boots while allowing military assistance to Ukraine - pleasing the military complex at the very least, regardless of who won. But even as Trump’s administration was wrapping up their mess, you could tell some in the GOP were setting a stage for pulling back military assistance; still are trying. Biden made sure assistance was unwavering and wants to degrade Russia in the eyes of the world while the west’s military complex shovels in taxpayer money. Taiwan, under Democrat leadership, is an easy choice: they’re not corrupt even with their wing of China friendly politicians, they’re trained and continue to be armed to the teeth with only one purpose: hold until the west comes to their defense (including S Korea and Japan). I honestly believe Hong Kong was too hard to defend from China but perhaps it might have played out differently under a Democrat POTUS. Lastly, Taiwan doesn’t have to “win” so much as make sure China doesn’t win; I think the US would be fine with another North South Korea tension if it keep China in their waters and off of Taiwan and their waters; most notably off of their eastern waters/shores.
It wouldn’t be suicide unless they are stupid or incompetent, as most of the world won’t respond with violence. Trump probably wouldn’t respond militarily, but Biden plans on it. The dumbest thing China could do is attack the US first, or too directly, as most of the world won’t offer military support otherwise. Pacific Asian countries won’t proactively get involved, but will aid the US to protect against China. If China only shoots Americans that directly attack them, they’ll be able to paint the US as the aggressor who’s meddling in an internal conflict. If they attack military bases or ships enforcing a blockade too directly, the US will be galvanized, and if they attack first to cripple the US’s ability to blockade fuel imports, the world will be galvanized and WWIII becomes likely.
China’s best strategy against Biden’s America is to totally forgo maintaining any chip technology whatsoever, taking Taiwan as quickly as possible with no regard for collateral damage. If they don’t succeed within a month, the mainland will suffer dearly, and if they piss off the American public too much, they’ll face constant hostility from the largest military on earth.
Biden will be motivated to maintain pressure, while Trump won’t want to waste American resources unless China attacks unprovoked for some dumb reason. Trump will do stupid shit like trying to invade Mexico and putting tariffs on all imports, but he’s less likely to fight China if they don’t provoke him. However, Trump is still risky, as if he gets personally upset at China, he’ll escalate dangerously just to show strength. China will be motivated to limit collateral damage and take Taiwan more slowly, so Trump doesn’t get as mad about the economic hit from invading. Ironically, China now wants Trump in office and Biden out, while it was almost the reverse in 2020.
I’d be surprised if any country responded militarily. It’s not in the interest of anyone to risk WW3 over Taiwan, and China knows this. In contrast to Russia, they are probably competent enough to take Taiwan in a day or two before anyone can send significant aid.
There would be massive economic implications though. The most effective deterrence that western countries have are sanctions, and they can’t let China invade without consequences to keep the deterrence effective (also for other countries), so they’d have to be used. Investment in China would probably be banned for decades to reduce reliance.
If hundreds of millions of Chinese fall back into poverty due to the invasion, that would be a serious threat for political stability in China.
I thought the same, but theres been a lot of exposed strife in xi’s perfect little world and he is quickly losing all the blood in his warboner. If anything is gonna happen, im guessing it’ll happen within a year or two. Any longer and xi wont have enough economy or technology to sustain even a remotely scary military.
Taiwan (or The Republic of China) is a special case in that it doesn’t want independence from the PRC*, but rather they claim that all of China is part of the ROC and is illegally occupied by the PRC. The PRC, likewise, views Taiwan as a rebellious little part of their own country.
*I learned just now that there’s a political movement that eschews this view and instead just wants sovereignty for the land currently owned by Taiwan.
Anyway, as far as I know, Ukraine doesn’t make any similar claims to Russia (except for certain contested areas).
As a pro-Ukranian Russian: fuck you. If Ukraine will try to conquer a single square inch of Russian land I’ll volunteer to be in factory making tanks, despite being a trans girl
This is actually a possibility in the game Terra Invicta. If you have annex claims on China as Taiwan, and then confederate the nations, they become ‘Unified Taiwan’.
Yes. China has a huge hacking problem. Anytime there is a ban wave of hackers in just about any competitive online multiplayer game that Chinese players have access to, the vast majority of the IPs banned are Chinese. The gaming cafes over there even advertise hacks.
It has to do with their culture. Chinese culture is very cutthroat and survival of the fittest. It makes people have the mindset of doing anything they can to win or be successful, even if it means cheating. It’s not just video games. They have a huge problem with it in their education system, as well. It’s also why there is so many cheap copies and counterfeits of different products made in China.
“Chinese people” aren’t known for being cheaters in games, except maybe by xenophobic anglophones. However, there are businesses in China that make a living through selling digital gaming items acquired through illegitimate means. Similar to how there are a lot of scam companies based in India - but that doesn’t mean “Indian people are cheaters”. People in India hate scammers too, and gamers in China hate game scammers.
It’s somewhat racist, but it’s also got some truth to it. Anywhere internet cafés are a thing cheating tends to be more popular. They’re usually not using their own account, so there is no risk to cheating. Internet cafés are prevalent in China and Russia, so there’s a stereotype of them being cheaters. That’s not to say they all do it, but it’s more likely than most other places.
From education to business, cheating is seen as fair play by a huge majority of people. And things like their stupid ass social credit system don’t help things, when getting ahead can literally be the difference between life and death.
You think the USSR, DPRK, and so on are any different? What definition of communism are you using, my dude?
I’d we’d like to talk about genocides in countries that don’t say they’re communist? There’s the Holocaust, ^Armenia, ^^Rwanda, ^^^Bangladesh, ^^^^Romania, ^^^^^Greece, ^^^^^^Assyria, ^^^^^^^Serbia/Croatia, ^^^^^^^^Chechnya
A form of government where the leader is chosen by popularity rather than ability to run a country. “I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; democracy simply doesn’t work.” -Kent Brockman by IKEM (?) on urban dictionary
Taken from the Greek ‘demos’ and ‘kratos’ (‘people’ and ‘power’ respectively), it refers to the system of government in which the entire population effectively rules through a concentrated body which relies on the population’s opinion as a source for its policies. The French Revolution was sparked by ideals of liberty and democracy for all. by ryanM on urban dictionary
I’m aware of the definition of democracy. I wasn’t aware of the meaning of 56 Chinas - we know fascist types love numerically coded language - 14 words, 18/50, 88, 18, and so on.
Looking at the meaning, 56 Chinas sounds concerningly close to ethno-state advocacy, but I figure that’s not the intent.
China are kinda dicks. They abuse the countries around them, genocide minorities, and violently oppress dissent.
Like, I’m not gonna pretend that most other superpowers either did that in the past or are currently doing it now, but China is just a little bit extra.
It’s pretty clear that having a strategic partner in that part of the world is a net positive for western counties. Also Taiwan supplies a huge fraction of our computer chips.
That they managed to utterly dominate the chipmaking market and use that as a leverage to make allies was a real master move. The pandemic and the whole supply chain troubles giving a wake up call that “all eggs in one basket” is bad sure got them worried, tho.
The PRC and RoC share a lot of the same territorial disputes because they both view themselves as the one rightful Chinese government; they largely agree which land is “part of China”. It’s taking Taiwan’s side because it’s saying they should administer all of it.
Doesn’t Taiwan largely still do this in the modern day because revoking those claims would be equivalent to declaring its formal independence as a separate country, which is something China has threatened would be met with invasion?
both view themselves as the one rightful Chinese government
This is a bit of an outdated view in my opinion. If you’re a KMT voter (ie. 60+), then sure, this is a common view. Younger generations (DPP voters) however don’t really view themselves as Chinese. I think this view will die out eventually.
Of course, for the most part, this is all off the official record because of the implications. Chinese nationalists will argue that this is wrong because it’s still written in the Taiwanese constitution or whatever, but the truth is that regular people in Taiwan couldn’t give less of a shit about China. De facto, most Taiwanese consider themselves their own country with no legitimate claims to China.
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